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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Discussion Number 5
2016-07-16 16:47:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT SAT JUL 16 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 161446 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 900 AM MDT SAT JUL 16 2016 Convective banding associated with Estelle continues to increase and become better organized, with a large band wrapping around the southwestern portion of the circulation, and broken bands of convection to the east and southeast of the center. Recent microwave and early-light visible satellite pictures indicate that the center of the tropical cyclone is located northeast of the earlier estimates, which required some relocation of Estelle for this advisory. With the increase in organization, Dvorak T-numbers have responded accordingly, and support raising the initial intensity to 45 kt. Estelle is forecast to remain in a moist and low wind shear environment during the next several days. These conditions, along with warm water along the forecast track, should allow for strengthening, and Estelle is forecast to become a hurricane in a day or so. After that time, the track forecast takes the cyclone just north of the cold wake left behind by previous hurricanes, and continued intensification is likely. After 72 hours, the tropical cyclone is forecast to move over cooler waters which should induce gradual weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the various intensity models, and shows a peak intensity slightly higher than the SHIPS/LGEM guidance. Due to the relocation of the center, the initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 290/7 kt, which is slightly slower than before. Estelle is expected to continue moving west-northwestward during the next few days to the south of a mid-level ridge that extends westward from northern Mexico. After that time, there is increasing spread in the guidance due to differences in the strength of the ridge. The GFS depicts a weaker ridge after 72 hours due to a developing trough off the west coast of the United States and takes the tropical cyclone west-northwestward to northwestward near the end of the forecast period. The ECMWF is on the southern side of the guidance envelope as it maintains more ridging and takes Estelle more westward. The updated NHC track lies between these solutions and is close to the Florida State Superensemble. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 15.7N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 16.0N 110.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 16.4N 111.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 16.8N 112.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 17.2N 114.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 18.1N 117.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 18.5N 121.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 21/1200Z 19.5N 126.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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