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Tropical Storm EUGENE Forecast Discussion Number 18
2017-07-12 04:35:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Jul 11 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 120235 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 800 PM PDT Tue Jul 11 2017 Although deep convection continues to dwindle overall, a narrow band of deep convection has continued to persist in the northern semicircle and near the center. As a result, Eugene is being maintained as a 40-kt sheared tropical cyclone for this advisory based on recent UW-CIMSS ADT estimates of T2.7/39 kt and the robust low-level circulation seen in visible satellite imagery. The initial motion remains northwestward or 320/08 kt. A deep-layer ridge to the northeast of Eugene is expected to keep the weakening cyclone on a northwestward track throughout the forecast period, which will be accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed after 24 hours. The NHC track guidance has shifted to the west, thus the official forecast has also been shifted to the left of the previous advisory, similar to a blend of the consensus models TVCN and HCCA. Eugene will continue to weaken throughout the next 4 days as a result of the ingestion of drier and more stable air, and from moving over colder SSTs of near 20 deg C by 48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the previous advisory, which has Eugene degenerating to a remnant low pressure system by 18-24 hours, and dissipating by 120 hours, if not sooner. Swells generated by Eugene will continue to propagate northward along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula to southern California during the next couple of days, causing dangerous surf and rip current conditions. Please refer to statements issued by your local weather office for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 22.3N 120.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 23.1N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 24.2N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 13/1200Z 25.3N 123.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/0000Z 26.2N 124.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/0000Z 27.5N 126.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/0000Z 28.0N 128.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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