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Tropical Storm Edouard Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-07-06 04:38:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Jul 05 2020 773 WTNT45 KNHC 060238 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Edouard Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020 1100 PM AST Sun Jul 05 2020 Satellite images indicate that the cyclone has become better organized during the past several hours, with a large convective burst causing a better-defined low-level circulation. While the center is now becoming exposed due to southwesterly shear, the maximum winds have almost certainly increased from earlier, so the initial wind speed is set to 35 kt. A recent partial ASCAT pass of at least 30 kt outside the RMW also supports the upgrade to a tropical storm, and the CIMSS satellite consensus (SATCON) is even higher than the analyzed intensity. Edouard is moving northeastward even faster than before, or 055/30 kt. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement on a quick northeastward or east-northeastward motion for the next couple of days before the system degenerates into a trough. Extratropical transition is anticipated by 24 hours due to forcing from a middle-latitude trough and a frontal boundary. Some minor strengthening of Edouard due to the transition process is possible over the next day or so before the global models show a gradual weakening. The track forecast has been adjusted a bit faster to account for the latest guidance and initial forward speed, and the intensity forecast has also been nudged upward to account for the current wind speed. Edouard is the earliest known 5th named storm on record for the Atlantic basin in the satellite era (1966-present), breaking the record formerly held by Emily on July 12, 2005. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 37.2N 56.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 39.6N 51.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 42.9N 44.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 07/1200Z 46.5N 37.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 08/0000Z 50.0N 29.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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