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Tropical Storm Edouard Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-07-06 10:45:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Jul 06 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 060845 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Edouard Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020 500 AM AST Mon Jul 06 2020 Satellite imagery indicates that Edouard is comprised of an exposed swirl of low- to mid-level clouds with a strong cluster of convection over the northeastern quadrant. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range from 35-45 kt, and the initial intensity is held at a possibly conservative 35 kt. Due to the rapid motion, it is possible that the system no longer has a closed circulation. However, there is not enough evidence of this to justify stopping advisories at this time. The initial motion is quickly northeastward or 055/31. Edouard is embedded in strong southwesterly mid-latitude flow, and a fast motion toward the northeast should continue until the cyclone dissipates. The new track forecast is little changed from the previous forecast, and it lies near the center of the tightly clustered model guidance. The cyclone is located in a region of strong southwesterly vertical wind shear, is heading for colder water, and is approaching a frontal system. This combination should lead to extratropical transition between 12-24 h, and it is possible that Edouard could strengthen a little as transition occurs. After transition, the extratropical low should persist for another 24 h or so before the circulation dissipates. The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 39.0N 53.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 41.3N 48.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 44.7N 41.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 07/1800Z 48.0N 33.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 08/0600Z 51.6N 25.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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