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Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-08-09 10:49:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 090849 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020 Deep convection associated with the cyclone has increased during the past several hours, particularly in a band in the southeast quadrant. Late-arriving ASCAT data valid around 0330 UTC revealed that the cyclone's low-level wind structure was still somewhat elongated in a SSW-NNE orientation. That said, the ASCAT data also showed a few believable 30-35 kt vectors in the northeast quadrant of the cyclone. That supports an intensity of 35 kt, making Elida the 5th tropical storm of the 2020 eastern North Pacific season. Even with the assistance of the ASCAT pass, it has been difficult to track the center of the tropical storm this morning. The center of Elida appears to have jumped somewhat northward since last night, and further reformations of the center will be possible until the system consolidates some more. The northward adjustment in the position resulted in a slight adjustment to the track forecast in that direction, but overall the tropical storm is still forecast to move generally west-northwestward for the next several days, steered by a mid-level ridge extending over northern Mexico and the southwestern United States. A westward turn is likely near the end of the forecast period as Elida weakens and low-level tradewinds become the dominant steering mechanism. Overall the models are in excellent agreement and confidence in the track forecast is fairly high. All of the statistical and regional hurricane intensity models forecast Elida to strengthen and become a hurricane within 48 h. Since the cyclone does not appear to have a tight inner-core yet, only modest strengthening is forecast for the first 12 h, followed by a faster rate after that. The extent of strengthening is still highly uncertain, and the guidance ranges from a minimal to major hurricane. The new NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and the multi-model consensus. Elida is forecast to weaken later this week after it reaches cooler waters to the north. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 15.8N 104.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 16.8N 106.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 17.9N 108.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 18.8N 111.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 19.7N 113.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 11/1800Z 20.6N 116.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 21.2N 119.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 13/0600Z 21.9N 123.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 14/0600Z 21.5N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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