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Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-08-09 22:41:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Aug 09 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 092040 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 300 PM MDT Sun Aug 09 2020 Elida appears to be on a strengthening trend. Visible satellite images indicate that the storm's banding features are becoming more tightly wrapped and symmetric around the center. An ASCAT pass from around 16Z showed maximum winds near 40 kt, but since the storm continues to organize, the initial intensity is set a little higher at 45 kt. This intensity estimate is in agreement with the 18Z Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, but slightly below the latest SATCON and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. Elida is likely on its way to becoming a hurricane as the environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable for strengthening during the next 36 to 48 hours. Now that the storm appears to have a well-defined inner core and outer bands, rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours with some additional intensification expected until it reaches cooler waters in a couple of days. After 48 hours, cooler waters and drier air should cause a gradual decay of the system, and Elida is expected to steadily weaken and become a remnant low by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast lies at the high end of the guidance, near HCCA, in the short term, but ends near the middle of the guidance envelope at the longer range times. The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 13 kt. The track forecast appears fairly straightforward. A mid-level ridge that stretches across northern Mexico and over a portion of the east Pacific should cause Elida to move generally west-northwestward at about the same forward speed during the next few days. After that time, a slower westward or west-southwestward motion is expected as the weakening cyclone is steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The models are in fairly good agreement, and this forecast lies near the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 17.0N 106.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 17.9N 108.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 18.9N 111.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 19.6N 113.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 20.3N 116.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 12/0600Z 21.0N 118.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 21.6N 120.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 21.9N 124.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 14/1800Z 21.3N 127.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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