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Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-08-10 04:35:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 09 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 100235 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 09 2020 Trends in satellite imagery over the past several hours indicate that Elida continues to quickly increase in organization. There has been an expanding central dense overcast, with the center of circulation presumed to be underneath cloud tops of about -70 C. Satellite intensity estimates TAFB and SAB as well as those from UW-CIMSS support increasing the initial intensity to 55 kt. Environmental conditions favor rapid intensification over the next 24 h or so. The latest SHIPS RI index indicates a better than 30 percent chance of Elida strengthening by 30 kt in the next 24 h, and based on the convective trends, the official forecast closely follows this guidance. By 48 h, the cyclone is forecast to cross the 26 C SST isotherm, and begin to enter a progressively drier and more stable atmospheric environment. This should cause steady weakening to occur. By 96 h, Elida is forecast to have been over waters cooler than 25 C for nearly 36 h. And as a result, the simulated satellite imagery by the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models all indicate that the deep convection will dissipate by that time. Therefore, Elida is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by the 96 h forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast is little changed from from previous one, is close to the HCCA model intensity guidance for the next couple of days, then trends towards the SHIPS guidance thereafter. Elida continues to move west-northwestward at 13 k, steered by a mid-level ridge extending from northern Mexico to the east Pacific. This pattern is forecast to remain in place for the next few days. After that time, a slower westward or west-southwestward motion is expected as the weakening cyclone is steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The model track forecasts are in good agreement on this scenario, and the latest NHC forecast track is in the middle of the consensus track guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 17.8N 107.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 18.7N 109.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 19.6N 112.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 20.3N 114.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 21.0N 117.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 12/1200Z 21.6N 119.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 22.1N 121.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 14/0000Z 22.0N 124.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 15/0000Z 21.1N 128.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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