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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 21
2021-07-05 16:59:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 051459 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 AM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021 A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been investigating Elsa while it approaches the south coast of Cuba this morning. Based on SFMR-observed surface winds from the aircraft, the intensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory. A center dropsonde from the plane measured 1009 mb with 26 kt at the surface, so the minimum central pressure estimate is 1006 mb, indicating no significant change since yesterday. Tail Doppler wind data from the NOAA plane showed that there is an eastward tilt of the center with height, so the storm continues to have some vertical alignment issues. Satellite imagery continues to depict convective banding features over the eastern portion of the circulation, with the center located near the western edge of the main cloud mass. Elsa continues its northwestward track with an initial motion estimate of 310/12 kt. Over the next 2-3 days, the tropical cyclone should move between a subtropical ridge over the southwest North Atlantic and a mid-level low over the northern Gulf of Mexico. In the latter part of the forecast period, Elsa is forecast to accelerate northeastward into the westerlies off the eastern United States coast and into the Atlantic, where it should lose its tropical characteristics in the vicinity of Nova Scotia. Over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, the official track track forecast has been nudged slightly westward toward the model consensus aids, HCCA and TVCA, but not as far west as that guidance. The GFS model track lies a little east of the latest NHC track. Some slight weakening is likely while Elsa crosses west-central Cuba today. Restrengthening over the Gulf of Mexico is likely to be limited by moderate westerly shear associated with a broad upper-level trough over the Gulf. The official intensity forecast is mostly higher than the numerical model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rain will impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba today resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys, the Florida Peninsula, and coastal Georgia through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Mid to late week, heavy rains across coastal South Carolina and North Carolina may result in isolated flash and urban flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected to continue across portions of central and western Cuba today. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Florida Keys and along the Florida west coast tonight through Tuesday night, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. A Tropical Storm Watch and a Storm Surge Watch are in effect for portions of the west coast of Florida and the Florida Big Bend. 4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions and storm surge impacts along the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 21.5N 81.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 23.2N 82.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 25.0N 83.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 27.0N 83.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 29.3N 83.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 31.5N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 08/1200Z 33.7N 79.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 09/1200Z 38.5N 72.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 10/1200Z 44.5N 61.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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