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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 27
2021-07-06 22:39:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 062039 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021 The Hurricane Hunters completed their mission into Elsa a little while ago, and observations from the aircraft indicate that the storm's maximum winds are near 60 kt. Elsa is a sheared tropical cyclone, with the low level center situated on the southwest edge of the main area of deep convection. Much of the western half of the circulation continues to lack significant shower or thunderstorm activity. Moderate westerly vertical shear, along with relatively dry mid-level air, should continue to affect the cyclone until landfall within the next day or so. However this environment should not be hostile enough to prevent some slight strengthening, and Elsa is predicted to become a hurricane overnight. Elsa is moving northward, or 350/9 kt. A continued northward track is likely for the next 24 hours or so as the tropical cyclone moves between the western periphery of an Atlantic subtropical ridge and a broad low pressure area over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. A turn toward the north-northeast along the northwestern side of the ridge is expected by late tomorrow, followed by an acceleration toward the northeast over the next couple of days ahead of a trough over the eastern United States and eastern Canada. The official track forecast is similar to the previous ones and near or slightly to the right of the model consensus tracks. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rain will impact Cuba tonight resulting in significant flooding and mudslides. As Elsa moves across the western and northern Florida Peninsula through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in considerable flash, urban, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding. Mid- to late-week, heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia may result in isolated flash and urban flooding, with considerable flash and urban flooding possible across coastal Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the west coast of Florida tonight and Wednesday, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for that area. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight and early Wednesday along a portion of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are occurring across portions of the Florida Keys and will spread northward along the west coast of the state within the warning area through Wednesday morning. 4. Although the center of Elsa is expected to remain inland of the coastline from Georgia through the Carolinas during the next couple of days, tropical storm conditions are expected in a portion of southeastern Georgia and are possible elsewhere along much of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 25.8N 83.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 27.5N 83.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 30.0N 82.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 36H 08/0600Z 32.3N 81.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 08/1800Z 34.8N 78.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 09/0600Z 37.4N 75.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 09/1800Z 40.5N 71.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 10/1800Z 48.5N 58.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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