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Tropical Storm Emilia Forecast Discussion Number 11
2018-06-30 10:34:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Jun 30 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 300834 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018 200 AM PDT Sat Jun 30 2018 Emilia has sheared apart during the past several hours, with the low-level center now exposed to the northeast of a diminishing area of deep convection. Recent scatterometer data indicate that the sustained winds have decreased to near 35 kt, and that will be the initial intensity for this advisory. Emilia should continue to weaken as it moves over decreasing sea surface temperatures, and the system is now expected to decay into a remnant low pressure ares between 36-48 h. The initial motion is now 285/8. The low- to mid-level flow on the south side of the subtropical ridge should continue to steer Emilia or its remnants west-northwestward for the next three days or so, followed by a more westward motion before the remnants dissipate. The new forecast track is an update of the previous track and lies near the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 17.0N 118.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 17.4N 120.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 18.1N 122.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 18.9N 123.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 20.0N 125.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 03/0600Z 21.5N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 04/0600Z 22.0N 134.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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