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Tropical Storm Emilia Forecast Discussion Number 5
2018-06-28 22:31:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Jun 28 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 282031 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018 300 PM MDT Thu Jun 28 2018 Satellite images indicate that Emilia is better organized than this morning, with a large banding feature wrapping around the western semicircle. There is still a fair amount of northeasterly shear, however, since the eastern part of the circulation is partially exposed. A blend of the Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB gives an initial wind speed of 40 kt. Further strengthening is expected over the next day or so while Emilia experiences decreasing shear over warm waters. A gradual decline in intensity should begin over the weekend due to the storm encountering cooler SSTs and entraining drier more stable air. Model guidance is a bit higher with the peak intensity of Emilia on this cycle, and the official prediction follows suit, ending up near the corrected consensus models. The storm continues to move west-northwestward this afternoon. A gradual decrease in Emilia's forward speed should occur over the next few days due to a weakening mid-level ridge to the north. The global models are still indicating a break in the subtropical ridge persisting at long range, which would keep the west-northwestward motion going throughout the period. The only change to the track forecast is a northward adjustment at days 4 and 5 to better match the poleward-trending models, although the official forecast remains on the southern side of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 14.9N 113.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 15.5N 115.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 16.2N 117.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 16.9N 118.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 17.5N 120.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 19.0N 123.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 21.0N 127.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 03/1800Z 22.5N 131.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake
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