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Tropical Storm Emilia Forecast Discussion Number 8
2018-06-29 16:33:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Jun 29 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 291433 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018 800 AM PDT Fri Jun 29 2018 Shortwave infrared imagery and an earlier 0855 UTC AMSR2 polar orbiter pass show deep convective bursts, with associated -78C cloud tops, developing near the surface center. The microwave pass also revealed improved curved banding to the south of the center. Based on these recent cloud pattern trends, it appears as though the east-northeasterly shear is beginning to diminish, as predicted by the SHIPS and LGEM intensity models. The initial intensity is increased to 50 kt on this advisory based on a blend of the Dvorak subjective T-numbers from TAFB and SAB, and an earlier SATCON analysis of 50 kt. Some further strengthening is still possible during the next 24 hours or so as the shear continues to relax. Afterward, decreasing sea surface temperatures and a stabilizing air mass should initiate a weakening trend. A majority of the large-scale models indicate that Emily will degenerate into a remnant low in 4 days, if not sooner. The NHC forecast follows suit and is based on the HCCA and FSU Superensemble intensity consensus forecasts. The initial motion is estimated to be 295/10 kt. Emily continues to be steered by a relatively narrow low to mid-level tropospheric ridge situated to the north. Global and hurricane models continue to remain in good agreement with a general west-northwestward motion until dissipation. The official forecast is slightly to the left of the previous advisory and closely follows the HCCA and TVCN consensus models through day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 16.2N 116.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 16.6N 117.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 17.2N 119.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 17.8N 121.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 18.5N 123.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 20.3N 127.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 21.7N 130.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 04/1200Z 22.7N 134.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
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