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Tropical Storm Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 16
2021-06-29 04:39:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 290239 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 900 PM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 Deep convection associated with Enrique has continued to wane this evening, with the cloud tops warming and the center located just to the northwest of the remaining convective activity. The subjective Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB continue to decrease along with the UW/CIMSS objective T-numbers. A blend of these and an earlier SATCON estimate yields an initial wind speed of 50 kt for this advisory. Although the center of Enrique is located over SSTs of around 28C, the storm has been entraining a drier and more stable air mass located just to its west, which has led to the loss of organization. Bursts of deep convection will likely continue during the next day or so while the storm moves northwestward near a sharp SST gradient. However, steady weakening is anticipated during Enrique's approach to the southern portion of the Baja peninsula. Land interaction and decreasing SSTs should cause the system to degenerate into a remnant low in a couple of days, and dissipate within 72 hours. Enrique is moving northwestward or 320/5 kt. The track forecast reasoning is unchanged from before. A low- to mid-level ridge to the northeast of the storm should steer Enrique northwestward over the next couple of days. The track guidance has shifted back to the east this cycle and the NHC forecast has been nudged in that direction, but it lies a little to the west of the latest multi-model consensus aids. The guidance has again trended faster and the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of western Mexico and the southern Baja Peninsula during the next couple days. The rainfall over the mainland of Mexico continue to pose a threat of life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are possible over portions of the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula beginning Tuesday night and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for that area. 3. Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next day or two, and will spread northward along portions of the coast of southern Baja California Peninsula and Gulf of California during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 21.1N 107.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 21.7N 108.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 22.6N 108.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 23.6N 109.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 24.5N 111.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 01/1200Z 25.0N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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