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Tropical Storm Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 17
2021-06-29 10:46:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 290846 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 300 AM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021 Enrique has lost most of its associated deep convection, likely due to the entrainment of drier and more stable air. Upwelling of cooler waters beneath the slow-moving circulation may also be a contributing factor. Based on data from a couple of earlier scatterometer overpasses, the intensity was reduced to 45 kt. Given the dearth of convection, this may be a generous estimate for the current intensity of the storm. Since the thermodynamic environment is not expected to become any more conducive, weakening is forecast. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and close to the model consensus. It should be noted that Enrique could weaken more rapidly than expected if significant deep convection does not redevelop within the circulation soon. Therefore, the intensity forecast for this system is highly uncertain. The center has become very difficult to locate and the fixes have considerable spread, making the initial position and motion estimates quite uncertain. Based heavily on continuity, the initial motion estimate is a continued northwestward track, or 325/5 kt. The flow to the west of a mid-level ridge over northwestern Mexico should steer Enrique generally northwestward for the next couple of days, taking the system near or over the southern Baja California Peninsula. Given the uncertainty as to whether Enrique will maintain tropical storm intensity by the time it moves near or over southern Baja, it is decided to continue with a Tropical Storm Watch for that area, and not upgrade it to a warning at this time. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of western Mexico and the southern Baja Peninsula during the next couple days. The additional rainfall over the mainland of Mexico will continue to pose a threat of flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are possible over portions of the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula beginning tonight, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for that area. 3. Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next day or two, and will spread northward along portions of the coast of southern Baja California Peninsula and Gulf of California during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 21.6N 107.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 22.5N 108.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 23.5N 109.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 24.5N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 25.2N 111.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 01/1800Z 25.5N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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