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Tropical Storm Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 19
2021-06-29 22:47:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 292047 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 300 PM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021 Enrique has been unable to sustain deep, organized convection near its center for over 18 hours, despite some seemingly favorable environmental conditions (namely, warm sea-surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear). Drier mid-level air to the west of the system may be partly to blame, but it remains somewhat unclear why Enrique is struggling so much. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF suggest Enrique could experience a brief flare-up of convection this evening, as it will still be located over warm sea-surface temperatures near the entrance to the Gulf of California. Therefore, Enrique is maintained as a tropical cyclone for this advisory. The initial intensity of 35 kt is supported by several recent scatterometer passes that showed a small area of tropical-storm-force winds in the eastern semicircle. The cyclone is now moving northwestward, or 325/8 kt. This general motion should continue for the next day or two as the system moves into the Gulf of California and near or over the Baja California Peninsula. The latest NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one, and it still lies near the center of the guidance envelope and close to the consensus aids. Without any convective organization, Enrique is forecast to continue slowly weakening, and it should become a tropical depression as it approaches the Baja California Peninsula and dissipate by Thursday once it moves over land. Based on the latest NHC forecast, the government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique may produce heavy rains across a portion of western Mexico and the southern Baja Peninsula during the next couple days. This rainfall over the mainland of Mexico will continue to pose a threat of flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico, and portions of the Gulf of California and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 23.2N 108.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 23.9N 109.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 24.6N 110.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 25.4N 111.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 01/1800Z 26.0N 112.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Beven
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