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Tropical Storm Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-06-25 16:57:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 180 WTPZ45 KNHC 251457 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 Convective coverage with Enrique has increased further this morning with a number of prominent banding features along the storm's south and eastern sides. This improvement in structure is also confirmed by a 1045 UTC 37 GHz GMI overpass, which suggested a formative inner core as the convective banding increased. The latest round of subjective Dvorak satellite estimates were both T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB, while the UW-CIMSS advanced Dvorak technique (ADT) estimate was up to T3.0/45 kt. Blending these estimates but learning towards the higher ADT value yields a current intensity of 40 kt for this advisory. The current motion of Enrique continues to the west-northwest at 290/8 kt, while the storm remains steered by a large mid-level ridge anchored over Mexico. However, this ridge will shift westward and weaken to the north of Enrique as a mid- to upper-level trough digs southward into the southwestern US. This pattern will likely slow down the steering currents over Enrique and allow for a gradual turn to the northwest late this weekend and early next week. Later in the forecast, Enrique's track is expected to bend back to the west-northwest as it becomes an increasingly shallow cyclone and the low- to mid-level ridging builds back in over Mexico. The latest NHC track forecast is in decent agreement with the track consensus, but some spread remains, with the GFS and HMON still on the right side of the guidance envelope. The current light northeasterly shear impacting Enrique is forecast to decrease even further over the next 24 to 48 hours while the cyclone traverses warm 29-30 C sea-surface temperatures and remains embedded in a moist mid-level environment. These conditions favor at least steady intensification, and Enrique is now forecast to become a hurricane in 24 hours and reach a peak intensity of 85 kt in 48 hours. Thereafter, easterly vertical wind shear could increase somewhat over the system, and its slow forward motion could lead to some upwelling of cooler waters underneath the cyclone. Thus, weakening is forecast to begin after 48 hours. By the end of the forecast period, sea-surface temperatures drop sharply along Enrique's expected track and more rapid weakening is likely. The latest NHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous one during the first 48 hours, but is still a little below the reliable HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA). Thereafter, the rate of weakening has been increased a bit as the thermodynamic environment becomes increasingly unfavorable. While the center of Enrique is still forecast to remain offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico, the large wind radii predicted on the eastern side of the storm necessitates the issuance of a Tropical Storm Watch from Punta San Telmo northwestward to Cabo Corrientes. In addition, outer rainbands are expected to cause locally heavy rains across portions of southwestern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 15.6N 102.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 15.9N 103.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 16.4N 104.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 16.9N 105.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 17.6N 106.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 28/0000Z 18.5N 106.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 19.2N 107.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 20.1N 108.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 30/1200Z 20.9N 109.8W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi
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