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Tropical Storm Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-06-25 22:57:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 252056 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 400 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 Enrique has continued to become better organized on satellite imagery over the course of the day. After exhibiting a prominent banding pattern for the majority of the morning and early afternoon, a recent convective burst with cloud tops below -80 C has developed over the center and could be the start of an organized central dense overcast. While there have not been any recent microwave passes to assess the structure underneath the cirrus canopy, scatterometer wind data over the center of Enrique indicated the extent of 34-kt winds east of the center had expanded, with a peak wind retrieval of 38 kt. Dvorak satellite estimates from TAFB were T3.0/45 kt, while SAB was T2.5/35 kt. The objective Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) has also been gradual increasing with its latest estimate at T3.5/55 kt. Taking a blend of Dvorak estimates with the somewhat lower scatterometer wind data yields an estimated intensity of 45 kt. Enrique has maintained a west-northwest heading for the majority of the day, but seems to be gradually slowing down at 290/7 kt. The track philosophy for the next few days has remained unchanged, with a weakening mid-level ridge to the north of Enrique likely to lead to a slowdown in the storm's forward motion with a northwest bend in its track. After 72 h, Enrique is expected to begin bending back to the west-northwest as the mid-level ridge re-intensifies, and the cyclone becomes more influenced by low-level steering flow while becoming a more shallow vortex. The latest track guidance has shifted a bit to the right after the first 24 h and the NHC track forecast follows suit, in good agreement with the track guidance consensus, but still remains left of the GFS and HWRF models. Satellite imagery this afternoon suggests Enrique is poised to intensify in the short term, while the storm remains embedded in a favorable environment of low vertical wind shear, high mid-level humidity, and warm sea-surface temperatures. In fact, the latest SHIPS-RI guidance indicates there is a 72 percent chance of a 45-kt wind increase over the next 36 hours, nearly 11 times its climatological value. The latest NHC intensity forecast is just below this value, calling for a 85-kt peak intensity in 36 hours. After 48 hours, increasing easterly shear, and possibly cooler upwelled waters as Enrique moves slowly northwestward is expected to begin a weakening trend. The latest NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the intensity consensus, but remains just a little below the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA). The expanded wind radii east of Enrique has prompted the issuance of Tropical Storm Warnings from Zihuatanejo northwestward to Cabo Corrientes. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of southwestern Mexico tonight and this weekend, and a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for a portion of that area. 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 15.9N 103.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 16.3N 104.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 16.7N 105.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 17.2N 105.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 18.0N 106.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 28/0600Z 18.9N 106.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 19.8N 107.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 21.0N 109.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 30/1800Z 21.9N 110.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi
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