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Tropical Storm Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-06-26 04:39:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 260238 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 Enrique's cloud pattern has continued to improve since this afternoon. There has been a notable increase in banding, and the Central Dense Overcast has become more symmetric. In addition, a SSMIS microwave overpass from shortly before 0000 UTC revealed an improved inner core structure with a band of deep convection wrapping about three-quarters of the way around the center. The latest subjective Dvorak T-numbers from SAB and TAFB are T3.5 (55 kt) and T3.0 (45 kt), respectively. Given the improvement in structure the intensity was increased to 55 kt on the 0000 UTC intermediate advisory and remains at that value for this advisory. The tropical storm is forecast to remain within an environment of low vertical wind shear and over warm sea surface temperatures during the next 24 to 36 hours. Those favorable conditions along with Enrique's improved inner core structure are likely to result in a period of rapid strengthening during the next day or so. In fact, the SHIPS guidance explicitly calls for rapid strengthening, and the latest NHC forecast follows suit. The new NHC intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity near major hurricane strength in 36 hours and lies between the SHIPS model and the slightly lower HCCA and ICON consensus aids. After 36-48 h, increasing shear, and possibly cooler upwelled waters, are likely to induce steady weakening throughout the remainder of the forecast period. Enrique continues to move west-northwestward or 295/8 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of the storm is forecast to weaken over the next day or so which should cause Enrique to slow down and bend northwestward between 24 and 60 hours. After that time, the ridge is expected to re-strengthen causing the tropical cyclone to turn west-northwestward once again. There has been little overall change to the track guidance this cycle, and the updated NHC forecast is not very different from before. It should be noted that the GFS and HWRF models depict a sharper northward turn over the weekend and bring the center of Enrique somewhat closer to the southwestern coast of Mexico than the remainder of the guidance, however the most recent run of the HWRF has trended westward during the early portion of the forecast. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across portions of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of southwestern Mexico tonight and this weekend, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for a portion of that area. 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 16.3N 104.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 16.7N 105.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 17.1N 105.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 17.8N 106.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 18.9N 106.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 28/1200Z 19.8N 107.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 20.5N 108.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 30/0000Z 21.5N 109.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 01/0000Z 22.5N 111.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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