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Tropical Storm Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 28
2020-10-25 21:36:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM GMT Sun Oct 25 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 252036 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Epsilon Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 900 PM GMT Sun Oct 25 2020 Epsilon is nearly extratropical, with late morning scatterometer data showing that the circulation has become stretched out as the cyclone interacts with a high-latitude low pressure system and an associated mid- upper-level trough to its north. The main reason that the cyclone is still classifiable as a tropical cyclone is persistent deep convection very near the center of circulation. Based on the scatterometer data showing an area of peak winds of 56 kt, the initial intensity is being lowered to 60 kt. What remains of the trapped tropical airmass near the center of the cyclone supporting the deep convection should mix out over the next few hours, as Epsilon moves over cold waters of about 15 degrees C and continues to wrap cooler and stable air into its circulation. The post-tropical cyclone will remain large and powerful until it is absorbed by another large extratropical low over the north Atlantic in about 24-36 h. Epsilon is racing east-northeastward at around 40 kt, embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. A fast east-northeastward or northeastward motion is expected to continue until the system gets absorbed by the aforementioned high-latitude low pressure system. The latest NHC forecast track is essentially an update of the previous one and remains in the middle of the tightly clustered consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 46.2N 44.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 49.4N 35.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 26/1800Z 54.4N 26.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 27/0600Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Latto [ more ]
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