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Tropical Storm Erick Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-07-28 04:33:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Sat Jul 27 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 280233 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019 500 PM HST Sat Jul 27 2019 An ASCAT-C scatterometer overpass this afternoon showed an area of 35-kt winds over the eastern semicircle of the system's circulation, which led to upgrading the depression to Tropical Storm Erick in an update just after the previous official advisory was issued. The overall presentation of the cyclone has changed little over the past several hours, and the latest satellite intensity estimate averages from TAFB and UW-CIMSS support keeping the system at 35 kt for this advisory. The motion of Erick is 280/15 kt, driven by strong mid-level ridging to the north of the cyclone. This ridging is forecast to persist to the north of the Erick, with only slight weakening expected later in the forecast period. This will result in a motion just north of west with a slight decrease in forward speed in a few days. Model guidance is in very good agreement on the forecast track of Erick. The latest guidance runs shifted back northward slightly from their previous runs, and the latest official forecast was nudged only a little north to lie essentially in the middle of the tightly clustered track guidance. Environmental conditions are favorable for Erick to intensify over the next 3 to 4 days, with the only current inhibiting factor is that the system lacks a well-defined inner core. How fast this inner core consolidates will be a key factor in the pace of intensification of Erick in the short term. Based on expectation that the inner core will consolidate, the NHC official intensity forecast has been increased through 96 hours to follow the trends in the intensity guidance. It should be noted that some of the more reliable dynamical guidance is suggesting that Erick could intensify more than indicated in this favorable environment. By about 96 hours, Erick should begin to weaken as it is expected to begin moving into an environment of increasing southwesterly shear, with SHIPS guidance indicating over 20 kt of shear by day 5. And, at this same time dry air surrounding the system may begin to entrain into the storm's circulation. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 11.9N 126.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 12.2N 129.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 12.6N 131.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 13.1N 134.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 13.7N 137.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 31/0000Z 15.0N 142.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 01/0000Z 16.5N 146.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 02/0000Z 17.0N 151.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto/Beven
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