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Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Discussion Number 12
2018-08-18 04:32:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Aug 17 2018 221 WTNT45 KNHC 180232 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018 1100 PM AST Fri Aug 17 2018 Organized deep convection associated with Ernesto has dissipated after the issuance of the last advisory. If it does not return, which seems unlikely with the system moving over SSTs of 16C or less, Ernesto should become a post-tropical cyclone by early Saturday. Geostationary and microwave imagery along with ASCAT data indicate that the mid-level circulation has begun to separate from the low-level center. A partial ASCAT-A pass from 2148 UTC showed a large area of 35-40 kt winds south and southeast of the center, and on that basis the initial intensity remains 40 kt. Ernesto is forecast to weaken only a little during the next 24 hours while it approaches Ireland and merges with a frontal zone Saturday night. The post-tropical cyclone's circulation should dissipate while it moves across Ireland and portions of the United Kingdom by early Sunday. Ernesto is racing east-northeastward at 30 kt and this motion should continue until dissipation. The new NHC forecast is close to the previous one and lies near the middle of the tightly clustered guidance envelope. The post-tropical cyclone or its remnants are expected to spread gusty winds and locally heavy rain over portions of Ireland and the United Kingdom Saturday night and early Sunday. Information on rainfall and wind forecasts for Ireland can be found in products issued by Met Eireann at www.met.ie and for the United Kingdom in products issued by the United Kingdom Met Office at www.metoffice.gov/uk. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 50.4N 25.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 52.3N 18.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 19/0000Z 54.1N 10.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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