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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 51
2020-11-13 03:44:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 130244 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 51 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1000 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the circulation of Eta is becoming stretched as it interacts with a frontal boundary just to its west. Deep convection is mostly confined to the northern side of the system and in patches associated with its trailing trough. Since buoy 41004 off the South Carolina coast recently reported sustained winds of 37 kt, the initial intensity is nudged up to 40 kt for this advisory. The models show the circulation of Eta continuing to lose definition overnight, and it is possible that the tropical storm will open up into a trough soon. Whatever is left of Eta will merge with the nearby front on Friday, causing it to transition into an extratropical cyclone. The non-tropical low is then forecast to dissipate on Saturday over the north Atlantic. Eta, or its remnants, will likely strengthen slightly before it dissipates on Saturday due to the predicted faster forward speed and baroclinic influences. Eta is moving northeastward at 15 kt. An even faster motion to the northeast is expected until the cyclone dissipates as it moves in the flow ahead of a deep-layer trough. This should take Eta, or its remnants, gradually away from the southeast U.S. coast. Deep-layer moisture partly associated with Eta has spread northward along a frontal boundary across eastern North Carolina and just offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast. See products from the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service office for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 32.3N 79.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 33.6N 76.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 36.1N 70.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 14/1200Z 39.3N 62.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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