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Tropical Storm Eugene Forecast Discussion Number 14
2017-07-11 04:35:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Jul 10 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 110235 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 800 PM PDT Mon Jul 10 2017 Eugene continues to weaken as it traverses SSTs below 26 deg C. The central deep convection is gradually becoming eroded, and the current intensity is estimated at 60 kt which is the mean of Dvorak CI numbers from SAB and TAFB. Although the storm continues to exhibit a fairly symmetrical upper-level outflow structure, it will be moving over increasingly cooler waters for the next few days. Continued weakening is likely, and the official intensity forecast is very close to the latest model consensus. Eugene should degenerate into a remnant low by Wednesday morning. The motion remains near 325/9. There are no important changes to the track forecast reasoning. A mid-level anticyclone to the northeast of Eugene should maintain a generally northwestward heading for the next few days, and until dissipation. A slight leftward bend is likely in a couple of days while the weakening cyclone becomes steered more by the low-level flow. The official forecast track is close to the latest corrected consensus prediction. Swells generated by Eugene will propagate northward along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula to southern California during the next few days, causing high surf and dangerous rip current conditions. Please refer to statements issued by your local weather office for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 20.2N 118.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 21.3N 119.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 22.6N 120.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 23.8N 121.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/0000Z 24.9N 122.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/0000Z 26.8N 124.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0000Z 28.0N 125.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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