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Tropical Storm FAUSTO Forecast Discussion Number 5
2014-07-08 22:45:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 08 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 082045 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062014 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 08 2014 The cloud pattern of Fausto has changed little during the past several hours, with the low-level center located near the northern edge of the main convective mass. A recent ASCAT overpass shows that the circulation is poorly defined on the western side, and there are no tropical-storm-force winds except in the southeastern quadrant. The initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 40 kt since the ASCAT did not fully sample the southeastern quadrant. The initial motion is now 280/13. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of Fausto should continue to result in a generally west-northwestward track for the next day or two. By days 2-4, a weakness in the ridge in the vicinity of 140-145 degrees west longitude should cause some deceleration and a slight turn to the right. By the end of the forecast period, it is expected that a weakening Fausto will be turning more westward in the lower-level trade wind flow. The new track forecast is just a little to the left of and slightly faster than the previous forecast, and it lies in the middle of the track guidance envelope. Fausto should be over warm sea surface temperatures and in an area of light vertical wind shear for about 48 hours. While these conditions are favorable, microwave satellite data and water vapor imagery show significant dry air near the cyclone. This, combined with the current structure, suggests that strengthening should be slow at best. After 48 hours, increasing northwesterly shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track should cause Fausto to weaken. The new intensity forecast calls for a slower strengthening and a quicker weakening than the previous forecast, which is in best agreement with the intensity consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 10.0N 124.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 10.5N 126.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 11.4N 129.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 12.2N 132.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 13.3N 135.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 15.0N 140.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 16.5N 144.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 13/1800Z 17.0N 148.0W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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