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Tropical Storm Fausto Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-08-16 16:45:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 708 WTPZ41 KNHC 161444 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Fausto Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112020 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 Deep convection with cloud tops at around -70 C has persisted over the center of the cyclone for the past several hours. All available Dvorak T-numbers have been on the increase, and an initial intensity of 35 kt is supported by the latest Dvorak estimates from both SAB and TAFB. This makes the cyclone the sixth tropical storm of the 2020 Eastern Pacific hurricane season. Fausto is crossing the 26 C SST isotherm and is expected to reach waters cooler than 24 C by Monday morning. Therefore it is likely that we are witnessing Fausto's peak intensity now. With the cooler waters, the convection should gradually decrease and the cyclone is expected to become a remnant low in about 2 days. The intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and is in good agreement with the intensity consensus aids. Fausto has increased its forward speed a bit and is now moving northwestward at around 13 kt. A slightly faster forward speed and a gradual turn to the west-northwest is expected through tonight along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. As the cyclone loses its convection, it should turn westward or just south of westward as it becomes steered by the low-level flow. The official forecast lies in the middle of tightly clustered guidance and is little changed from the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 20.7N 119.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 22.3N 121.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 23.6N 124.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 24.1N 127.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 24.0N 129.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/0000Z 23.6N 131.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1200Z 22.9N 133.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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