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Tropical Storm Fausto Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-08-16 22:31:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 162031 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Fausto Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112020 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 The deep convection has decreased in coverage over the cyclone today, but the center remains underneath clouds tops of about -60 C. The initial intensity of 35 kt is supported by the latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimate from TAFB, but this may be a little generous based on late-arriving ASCAT overpass data. There is no change to the forecast intensity philosophy. Fausto has crossed the 26 C SST isotherm and will be heading towards waters cooler than 24 C by Monday morning. Therefore a weakening trend is expected to begin soon. The deep convection should decrease and the cyclone is forecast degenerate to a remnant low Monday night. Fausto has accelerated and is now moving northwestward at around 17 kt along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. As the cyclone loses its convection, it should turn west or just south of west as it becomes steered by the low-level flow. The official forecast lies in the middle of tightly clustered guidance and is little changed from the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 21.5N 121.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 23.2N 123.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 24.1N 126.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 24.3N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1800Z 23.9N 130.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/0600Z 23.2N 132.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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