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Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-07-10 16:51:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 305 WTNT41 KNHC 101451 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Fay's circulation currently consists of a small low-level center rotating around inside of a larger circulation. Deep convection is displaced well to the north and southeast of the center as water vapor imagery shows dry air being wrapped into the circulation. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Fay this morning found that the pressure has fallen to around 999 mb, and based on a blend of the SFMR peak winds of 45 kt and a 925-mb peak flight level wind of 65 kt, the initial intensity is set to 50 kt for this advisory. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one. Little change in strength is expected before Fay's center moves inland later today or this evening, with weakening expected after that time. While a 48-h forecast point is provided, most of the models show the vortex dissipating by that time. The initial motion estimate is 005/10. Fay will be steered generally northward and north-northeastward until dissipation between a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and an approaching shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes. Little change was made to the NHC track forecast, which lies close to the previous one and is near the middle of the guidance envelope. Users should not place too much emphasis on the exact track of the center of Fay, as heavy rainfall and strong winds will continue to affect areas well away from the cyclone's center. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall from Delaware northward into New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, southeast New York, and southern New England may result in flash flooding and urban flooding in areas with poor drainage. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time. 2. Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward across portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeast coast today and tonight, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coasts of Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut, including Long Island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 38.4N 74.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 39.9N 74.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 11/1200Z 43.2N 73.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 12/0000Z 47.1N 71.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/1200Z 50.7N 69.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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