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Tropical Storm Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 23
2021-07-19 22:39:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Mon Jul 19 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 192039 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Felicia Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 1100 AM HST Mon Jul 19 2021 Felicia continues to weaken at a rapid pace. Satellite images show that only a small amount of deep convection in the northeastern quadrant remains, and otherwise the circulation is largely a swirl of low-level clouds. Dvorak classifications continue to fall, and a blend of the latest intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin support lowering the initial intensity to 55 kt. This makes Felicia a tropical storm once again. A recent ASCAT-A pass showed peak winds close to 45 kt, but given the very small size of the system and relatively coarse resolution of the instrument, it seems reasonable that stronger winds are occurring. Very dry air surrounding the small storm combined with cool SSTs and a steady rise in northwesterly wind shear should cause additional weakening, and Felicia will likely become a remnant low in a couple of days, or possibly sooner if the current trends continue. The intensity forecast follows the bulk of the guidance and is a little lower than the previous one. Felicia has been losing some latitude today, and the latest initial motion estimate is 265/11 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the storm should steer Felicia west-southwestward to westward during the next several days until the cyclone dissipates, which is now expected to occur by day 4. Based on the current forecast, Felicia should cross into the Central Pacific basin by Tuesday night. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 16.1N 133.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 15.9N 135.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 15.5N 138.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 15.0N 141.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 14.4N 143.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 22/0600Z 13.7N 146.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/1800Z 13.1N 148.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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