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Tropical Storm Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 26
2021-07-20 16:49:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Tue Jul 20 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 201449 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Felicia Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 500 AM HST Tue Jul 20 2021 After being devoid of deep convection for 9-12 hours overnight, Felicia managed to redevelop a small area of convection near and north of its estimated low-level center. However, this convective activity is poorly-organized and already appears to be waning. Subjective Dvorak satellite estimates at 1200 UTC were T2.5/35 kt from SAB and T2.0/30 kt from TAFB, while the latest objective ADT estimate was T1.5/25 kt. Given the earlier scatterometer data and that convection had increased somewhat since that time, the initial intensity is only being lowered to a possibly generous 35 kt for this advisory. The latest estimated motion continues to be south of due west but a little faster, at 260/14 kt. Felicia is primarily being steered by a large subtropical ridge to its north, which should maintain the cyclone on a west-southwest heading over the remainder of its lifespan. The latest NHC track forecast remains very similar to the previous one, but is a touch faster, in agreement with the most recent GFS and ECMWF forecasts. On the latest forecast track, Felicia is expected to move into the central Pacific basin later today, just after 2100 UTC. Despite the recent small convective burst, Felicia's large-scale environment remains dominated by moderate to strong northwesterly vertical wind shear within a dry and stable airmass over 25-26 C sea-surface temperatures. Consequently, a good chunk of the deterministic model guidance (e.g., GFS/ECWMF/HWRF) depict Felicia struggling to produce much, if any, additional organized convection near its center. The official NHC intensity forecast shows Felicia weakening into a tropical depression later today and then degenerating into a remnant low by 24 hours, in close agreement with the multi-model consensus. The remnant low is then forecast to open up into a trough while moving well south of the Hawaiian islands by 60 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 15.8N 138.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 15.3N 140.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 14.7N 143.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 22/0000Z 14.1N 145.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 22/1200Z 13.6N 148.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi
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