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Tropical Storm Fernand Forecast Discussion Number 4
2019-09-04 04:33:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 040233 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019 A NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane investigated Fernand this evening and found that the circulation of the cyclone was better organized with a central pressure of 1000 mb. The plane also measured a peak flight level wind of 51 kt, and numerous SFMR observations of around 45 kt. This is the intensity assigned to Fernand in this advisory. These strong winds were confined to the western semicircle of the storm and very close to the coast of Mexico. The satellite presentation has also improved during the past few hours, but due to shear, the center is still located on the southeastern edge of an area of very deep convection. Fernand does not have to much room for strengthening since its circulation will soon be interacting with the high terrain of eastern Mexico. However, in the next 12 to 18 hours before the center moves inland, some intensification could occur as indicated in the official NHC forecast. Once Fernand moves inland, it will weaken rapidly. The cyclone is moving slowly westward or 270 degrees at 3 kt. Fernand is trapped south of a strong mid-level ridge over the southwestern United States, and this pattern should slowly steer the cyclone on a west-to west-northwest track for the next day or so. This track is consistent with the previous one, and it is consistent with the solution of the global models. The primary threat from this system will be heavy rainfall that could produce flooding and mudslides, especially in the mountainous areas of Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 23.2N 96.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 23.5N 97.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 24.0N 98.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 05/1200Z 24.5N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 48H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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