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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-09-04 10:54:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 04 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 040854 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019 500 AM AST Wed Sep 04 2019 A late-arriving ASCAT-C scatterometer pass revealed peak surface winds of 33 kt in the northwestern quadrant, and satellite imagery since then indicates a marked increase in the deep convection, albeit sheared to the northeast of the well-defined low-level center noted in the scatterometer data. Based on these wind data and a satellite intensity estimate of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and UW-CIMSS ADT, the depression has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Gabrielle, the seventh named storm of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. The initial motion is 310/09 kt. The initial position was adjusted slightly to the southwest of the previous positions based on the aforementioned scatterometer data. This has resulted in the new forecast track being shifted a little to the left of the previous advisory track at all forecast times. For the next 5 days, Gabrielle is forecast to move generally northwestward toward a break in the Bermuda-Azores high pressure ridge located between 40W-50W longitude. The official forecast track lies close to a blend of the tightly packed consensus models TVCN, TVCX, and NOAA-HCCA. During the entire forecast period, Gabrielle is forecast to remain in a marginally conducive environment characterized by moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear of 15-20 kt, SSTs of 26-27 deg C, and dry mid-level air with humidity values less than 50 percent. As a result, only slight strengthening is forecast through 72 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the HCCA consensus intensity model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 19.6N 33.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 20.3N 34.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 21.1N 35.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 22.1N 36.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 23.4N 37.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 27.5N 41.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 31.5N 44.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 09/0600Z 35.5N 47.2W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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