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Tropical Storm Gil Forecast Discussion Number 2
2019-08-03 22:33:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 032033 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Gil Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082019 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2019 Scatterometers are providing plenty of surprises today. ASCAT-B data at 1716 UTC showed that the cyclone not only still has a well-defined circulation, but also winds of 30-35 kt northeast of the low-level center. Given that the instrument likely under sampled the strongest winds, the initial intensity has been increased to 35 kts, and the system is now designated as Tropical Storm Gil. Despite the slight increase in winds, the long-term prospects for Gil have not improved. The tropical storm is strongly sheared due to an upper-level trough located just to the north, and the GFS and ECMWF forecast that the shear will remain high during the next few days. A marginally dry surrounding environment will also likely limit further strengthening. Given the higher initial winds of Gil, the new NHC forecast carries the cyclone as a low-end tropical storm for about a day, before showing gradual weakening. By 72 h, all of the dynamical guidance indicates that Gil will open into a trough of low pressure, and many of the models suggest it could happen well before that. The initial motion estimate is 285/10 kt. The center position of Gil was adjusted slightly southward since the last advisory and the official forecast has been adjusted accordingly. That said, there is no change in the reasoning behind the forecast, and low-level easterly flow should cause Gill to move generally westward for the next couple of days at a steady pace. The official forecast closely follows TVCE and HCCA until dissipation is expected after 48 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 15.0N 122.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 15.2N 123.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 15.5N 125.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 15.6N 127.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 15.5N 129.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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