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Tropical Storm Gil Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-08-04 04:31:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 040231 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Gil Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082019 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2019 Gil remains a strongly sheared tropical cyclone, with the estimated low-level center located near the western edge of a ragged-looking convective mass. Based on a Dvorak classification from TAFB, the intensity estimate remains at 35 kt. The shear is being produced by large upper-level trough that lies near and to the north of the storm, and the dynamical guidance indicates that this shear will persist for the next couple of days. This, along with relatively dry mid-tropospheric air of relative humidities near 50 to 60 percent, should cause Gil to weaken and then dissipate within 72 hours. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and close to the model consensus. The motion is estimated to be westward or 280/10 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge should be maintained to the north of the cyclone over the next few days. This flow pattern should cause a continued westward or slightly south of westward track until dissipation. The official track prediction is very close to the previous NHC forecast and also close to the corrected model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 14.9N 123.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 15.1N 124.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 15.3N 126.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 15.3N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 15.0N 130.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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