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Tropical Storm Gilma Forecast Discussion Number 3
2018-07-27 10:31:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018 926 WTPZ43 KNHC 270831 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Gilma Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082018 200 AM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018 The cloud pattern associated with the cyclone has lost organization during the past several hours, with the low-level center now located at the northern edge of a smaller area of convection. Despite the ragged appearance in satellite imagery, recent ASCAT-A data showed an area of 35 kt winds to the northeast of the center. Based on this, the cyclone has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Gilma. The initial motion is 285/14. Gilma should be steered westward to west-northwestward along the southwestern flank of a large mid-level ridge extending westward from the southwestern United States. As the cyclone decays to a shallow remnant low late in the period, a more westward motion is expected. The new track forecast is similar to, but a little faster than the previous forecast, and it is a blend of the previous forecast and the multi-model consensus aids. Gilma is located just to the east of an upper-level trough, which the large-scale models forecast to move or re-form westward just ahead of the storm for the next couple of days. This evolution is expected to keep the cyclone in an area of moderate vertical wind shear, but with some upper-level divergence to maintain convection. Based on this, the intensity forecast shows a little more strengthening in agreement with the overall trend of the intensity guidance. After 36-48 h, Gilma is likely to move into strong and dry northwesterly upper-level flow west of the upper-level trough axis, which should lead to weakening and eventual dissipation. The new intensity forecast now shows dissipation by 120 h in agreement with the dynamical models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 14.4N 126.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 14.6N 128.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 15.0N 130.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 15.5N 132.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 16.1N 134.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 17.5N 138.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 31/0600Z 17.5N 143.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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