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Tropical Storm HERNAN Forecast Discussion Number 11
2014-07-28 22:32:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 282032 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014 200 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014 The cloud pattern of Hernan continues to degrade in appearance, and what little deep convection remains is confined mainly to the south of the center. The current wind speed estimate has been reduced to 45 kt based on a blend of intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB along with objective Dvorak numbers from UW-CIMSS. The storm is now moving over waters cooler than 26 deg C, and sea surface temperatures should continue to decrease beneath the cyclone. These hostile oceanic conditions, combined with moderately strong south-southwesterly shear, are likely to bring about continued weakening. The official intensity forecast shows Hernan degenerating into a remnant low in 36 hours, but the latest intensity model guidance suggests that the system could weaken even faster than indicated here. Hernan continues on its west-northwestward trek, and the initial motion is estimated to be 300/15 kt. A mid-level ridge over the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico should impart a continued west-northwestward motion for the next couple of days. Thereafter, the dying cyclone is expected to turn westward since the steering should become dominated by the low-level tradewind flow. The official track forecast is quite similar to the previous NHC track and is very close to the latest dynamical model consensus forecast, TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 21.3N 117.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 22.4N 119.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 23.6N 121.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 24.2N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/1800Z 24.5N 124.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/1800Z 24.5N 126.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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