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Tropical Storm HERNAN Forecast Discussion Number 12
2014-07-29 04:32:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 290232 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014 800 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014 Deep convection to the southeast of Hernan's center dissipated a few hours ago, but a new burst of activity has recently developed to the north of the center. Still, subjective and objective Dvorak satellite estimates continue to decrease, and the initial intensity is set at 40 kt based on a blend of these data. Due to decreasing sea surface temperatures, increasing atmospheric stability, and strengthening vertical shear, this new round of convective activity is likely to be short lived. Based on the latest intensity guidance, the updated NHC forecast now shows Hernan weakening to a tropical depression in about 12 hours and becoming a remnant low by 36 hours. Dissipation is indicated by day 4, but some of the global models indicate that it could occur sooner. The initial motion remains 300/15 kt. Hernan is forecast to continue moving west-northwestward during the next 48 hours, but it should also slow down as it comes under the influence of weaker low-level flow. A slow westward motion is expected just before the remnant low dissipates. The model consensus TVCE has been trending a little bit farther north, and the updated NHC track forecast is nudged in that direction primarily at 48 and 72 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 22.1N 118.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 23.1N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 24.0N 122.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 24.6N 123.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/0000Z 25.0N 124.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/0000Z 25.0N 127.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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