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Tropical Storm HERNAN Forecast Discussion Number 13
2014-07-29 10:33:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 290833 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014 Hernan continues to weaken. Deep convection has been decreasing during the past few hours and is now confined to a small patch to the northeast of the exposed low-level center. A blend of the latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS yields an initial wind speed of 35 kt. The system is currently over cool 24 C waters and in atmosphere of fairly dry air and moderate southwesterly shear. These environmental conditions are expected to become even more hostile, which should cause Hernan to weaken to a depression later today and to a remnant low by tonight. The models are in good agreement in showing the remnant low dissipate in 3 to 4 days. The storm is moving west-northwestward at about 14 kt on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high centered over northern Mexico and the southwestern United States. Hernan, or its remnant low, is expected to slow down during the next couple of days when it steered by the lighter low-level flow. The model guidance has changed little this cycle, and the official track forecast is an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 22.8N 119.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 23.7N 121.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 24.4N 123.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 30/1800Z 24.9N 124.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/0600Z 25.2N 125.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/0600Z 25.3N 127.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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