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Tropical Storm HILARY Forecast Discussion Number 31
2017-07-29 04:34:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Jul 28 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 290234 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 800 PM PDT Fri Jul 28 2017 During the past few hours, a faint eye has emerged with Hilary on visible imagery, with even hints of a warm spot in the infrared channel. Overall, the satellite presentation has improved, and the subjective satellite intensity estimates have risen to between 55 and 65 kt. A blend of these values gives 60 kt for the initial intensity. This increase in winds should be short-lived since Hilary will be moving over progressively cooler water and into a more stable environment. By 48 hours, Hilary is forecast to become a remnant low over 22.5C waters. The latest NHC wind speed prediction is a blend of the previous interpolated forecast and the intensity consensus. Hilary continues moving northwestward, a little faster now at 10 kt. A mid-level ridge extending from southern California west-southwestward across the eastern Pacific should steer Hilary on this general path for the next couple of days. The forecast then gets more complicated due to any interaction with TS Irwin. Surprisingly, the model guidance has fallen into good agreement since the last cycle, displaying a slowdown for Hilary and a small turn to the west-northwest due to Irwin. The latest models are fairly close to the previous NHC forecast, so no significant changes are made. The other model trend of note is that none of the main global models shows Hilary absorbing Irwin, likely due to how weak Hilary will be in a few days. Instead Hilary just dissipates over the cold waters, and even a couple models have Irwin now absorbing Hilary since it will have a much shorter time over the poor environment. The NHC forecast will now show dissipation of the remnant low of Hilary by day 5, in accordance with all of the global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 20.3N 120.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 21.1N 121.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 22.3N 123.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 23.6N 125.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 31/0000Z 24.7N 127.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/0000Z 25.8N 131.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/0000Z 26.5N 132.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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