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Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 40
2017-08-30 10:52:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 300852 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 400 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017 Radar, satellite, and surface observations indicate that Harvey's center has crossed the coast just west of Cameron, Louisiana, with most of the associated deep convection located over extreme southeastern Texas and western Louisiana. Although the rain has ended in the Houston/Galveston area, the Beaumont/Port Arthur area was particularly hard hit overnight, with about 12.5 inches reported at the Jack Brooks Regional Airport since 7 pm CDT. ASCAT data from late last night indicated that Harvey's maximum winds were near 40 kt, and the tropical-storm-force wind radii on the eastern side were a little smaller than previously estimated. Harvey has turned north-northeastward and is moving a little faster with an initial motion of 030/6 kt. The cyclone is located on the northwestern side of a mid-tropospheric high, which should steer it north-northeastward and the northeastward across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys during the next few days. The global models indicate that the surface low should dissipate over the Ohio Valley by day 4, which is now indicated in the NHC forecast. Now that Harvey's center is moving inland, the maximum winds should gradually decrease during the next few days. Harvey is likely to weaken to a tropical depression by tonight, and then it could become a remnant low by day 3. This weakening will not eliminate the risk of continued heavy rainfall and flooding along Harvey's path, although the system's faster motion will prevent rainfall totals from being anywhere near what occurred over southeastern Texas. Key Messages: 1. Ongoing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue across southeastern Texas. While the threat of heavy rains has ended in the Houston/Galveston area, catastrophic and life- threatening flooding will continue in and around Houston eastward into southwest Louisiana for the rest of the week. Isolated storm totals have reached 50 inches over the upper Texas coast, including the Houston/Galveston metropolitan area. Please heed the advice of local officials. Do not attempt to travel if you are in a safe place, and do not drive into flooded roadways. Refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard. A summary of rainfall totals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html 2. The flood threat has spread farther east, and additional rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with isolated amounts up to 10 inches are expected from southwestern Louisiana and the adjacent border of eastern Texas northeastward into western Kentucky through Friday. Please heed the advice of local officials and refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard in these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 29.8N 93.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 12H 30/1800Z 30.4N 92.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 31/0600Z 31.7N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 31/1800Z 33.3N 90.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 01/0600Z 35.0N 88.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 02/0600Z 37.5N 84.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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