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Tropical Storm Hector Forecast Discussion Number 2
2018-08-01 04:32:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Jul 31 2018 224 WTPZ45 KNHC 010232 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 800 PM PDT Tue Jul 31 2018 Deep convection associated with the tropical cyclone has continued to become better organized since the previous advisory with an increase in banding over the western and southern portions of the circulation. As a result, satellite intensity estimates have increased to T2.5 on the Dvorak scale, so the initial wind speed has been increased to 35 kt. Hector becomes the eighth named storm of the 2018 eastern North Pacific hurricane season. Hector is forecast to traverse warm SSTs and remain within a favorable upper-level wind pattern during the next day or so which should result in steady strengthening. Some moderate northeasterly shear could temper the rate of intensification in 36-48 h, but the intensity guidance is generally more aggressive this cycle. The NHC intensity forecast calls for a faster rate of strengthening early in the forecast period, and brings Hector to hurricane status in a couple of days, which is in line with most of the intensity guidance. The updated official forecast also indicates a slightly higher peak intensity, but it is not as high as the dynamical model guidance and the ICON intensity consensus model in deference to the previous NHC advisory. Recent satellite fixes indicate that Hector is moving west- northwestward or 285/12 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge to the north of the tropical storm is expected to keep the system on a generally west-northwestward to westward motion throughout the forecast period. The track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, but there are some differences in the predicted forward speed of the cyclone. The ECMWF depicts a faster westward motion while the GFS, GFS ensemble mean, and HWRF show a somewhat slower speed. The new NHC track forecast is a little faster than the previous official forecast, but is slower than most of the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 13.0N 118.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 13.4N 119.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 13.8N 122.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 13.9N 124.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 13.9N 126.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 13.8N 130.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 13.7N 134.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 13.7N 138.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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