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Tropical Storm Henriette Forecast Discussion Number 2
2019-08-12 10:36:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 120836 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092019 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Deep convection has continued to burst over the western portion of the cyclone overnight. Although the system is sheared with the center located near the northeastern edge of the convective mass, a couple of ASCAT passes have shown a very small area of 30-35 kt winds over the northwestern portion of the circulation. These winds extend no more than about 15-20 n mi from the center, but based on these data the initial wind speed has been increased to 35 kt. Henriette becomes the eighth named storm in the eastern Pacific basin this season. The ASCAT data also assisted in locating the center this morning, and recent fixes show that Henriette continues to move west- northwestward or 295/12 kt. The tropical storm should move west-northwestward around the southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge that extends westward from northern Mexico. As Henriette weakens, it is likely to turn westward within the low-level flow. The updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory through 36 hours, but has been adjusted southward at 48 hours to be closer to the various consensus aids. Henriette is not anticipated to strengthen much more. Although the system is predicted to remain over warm waters and within an area of light to moderate northeasterly shear today, nearby dry mid-level air is likely to prevent significant strengthening. By Tuesday morning, Henriette will be moving over cooler waters and into a more stable airmass. This should lead to weakening, and the cyclone is predicted to degenerate into a remnant low within 48 hours, with dissipation occurring shortly thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 19.5N 110.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 20.2N 112.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 21.0N 114.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 21.7N 116.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 22.0N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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