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Tropical Storm Hernan Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-08-28 04:34:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Aug 27 2020 135 WTPZ43 KNHC 280234 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hernan Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020 900 PM MDT Thu Aug 27 2020 A burst of strong convection has developed near the center of Hernan during the past several hours, but overall the storm remains poorly organized. Indeed, a westerly surface wind observed in the Isla Marias Islands to the north of the center makes it unclear if a closed circulation still exists, a question that upcoming scatterometer data will hopefully resolve. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based mainly on satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The initial motion is now north-northwestward or 335/7 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn northwestward and then west- northwestward as it rotates around the northeastern side of the approaching Tropical Storm Iselle. The new forecast track is nudged to the north of the previous track and lies near the various consensus models. A combination of continued strong easterly shear and interaction with the larger Iselle should cause Hernan to weaken during the next 48 h or so. The new intensity forecast shows the system weakening to a depression after 12 h and degenerating to a remnant low by 36 h. After that, the cyclone is currently forecast to degenerate to a trough by 60 h as it gets absorbed into Iselle, and several of the global models suggest this could happen earlier. The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 20.5N 107.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 21.6N 108.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 22.3N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 23.0N 111.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/0000Z 23.4N 113.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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