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Tropical Storm Hilary Forecast Discussion Number 35
2017-07-30 04:34:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Jul 29 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 300233 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 800 PM PDT Sat Jul 29 2017 Satellite data indicate that Hilary is gradually losing organization. GOES-16 1-minute visible data show the center on the northwestern side of a warming central dense overcast. A late-arriving ASCAT-A pass from 1808Z suggested maximum winds of up to 55 kt. With the degradation in the satellite presentation since that time, the initial wind speed is set to 50 kt. While Hilary has been holding its own recently, the cold waters and dry stable air mass of the eastern Pacific always end up winning, and a steady weakening of Hilary should begin soon. The intensity forecast is close to a blend of the previous interpolated forecast and the HFIP-corrected intensity consensus. Transition to a remnant low is expected in about 24 hours due to Hilary moving over progressively colder waters. Hilary is moving a little faster and to the left, now 305/12. The storm should turn west-northwestward as it weakens and begins to interact with the circulation of Irwin. There is a reasonable consensus in the models that one or both of the tropical cyclones will dissipate before any merger can occur, and none of the major models keep Hilary intact through 72 hours. Thus the only change is to show Hilary dissipated at that time, with only cosmetic modifications made to the rest of the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 22.9N 123.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 23.9N 125.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 31/0000Z 25.0N 128.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 31/1200Z 25.8N 130.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 01/0000Z 26.0N 132.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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