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Tropical Storm Hilary Forecast Discussion Number 37
2017-07-30 16:34:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 30 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 301433 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 30 2017 Convection has continued to rapidly wane with only a small band of modest thunderstorm activity with tops to -30C restricted to the southeastern quadrant. The initial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt based on a blend of available intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON. This rapid weakening trend is forecast to continue since Hilary is now moving over sub-22 C SSTs and into an extensive field of stable, cold-air stratocumulus clouds. These unfavorable thermodynamic conditions should cause Hilary to degenerate into a remnant low pressure system tonight, if not sooner. The initial motion estimate is 300/11 kt. As Hilary continues to lose its deep vertical circulation, the shallow cyclone should maintain a general west-northwestward motion along the southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge until dissipation occurs in 72 h. The NHC track forecast remains along the southern portion of the tightly clustered guidance and is close to the previous advisory track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 23.9N 125.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 31/0000Z 24.9N 127.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 31/1200Z 25.8N 129.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 01/0000Z 26.3N 131.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 01/1200Z 26.7N 133.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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