je.st
news
Tropical Storm Hilary Forecast Discussion Number 38
2017-07-30 22:40:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 30 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 302040 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 30 2017 Convection continues to gradually decline with cloud tops of -20C to -25C now located near the low-level center and in the northern semicircle. Although the convective pattern has taken on more of a stratiform appearance, an 1840Z ASCAT-B overpass indicated that Hilary is still a tropical storm based on several 35- to 37-kt wind vectors located in the northeastern quadrant. Therefore, the initial intensity remains 35 kt for this advisory. Continued steady weakening is expected as Hilary moves over SSTs near 21C and ingests stable stratocumulus clouds throughout the forecast period, with the cyclone likely degenerating into a remnant low pressure system tonight or early Monday. The initial motion estimate is 300/12 kt. There is no significant change to the previous forecast track or rationale. The latest NHC model guidance is in excellent agreement on Hilary moving west-northwestward for the next 24 hours or so, followed by the shallow cyclone turning a little more westward under the influence of brisk easterly tradewinds until dissipation occurs by 72 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 25.0N 127.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 31/0600Z 25.9N 129.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 31/1800Z 26.7N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 01/0600Z 27.2N 132.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 01/1800Z 27.5N 134.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||