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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 17
2021-08-03 22:39:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 032039 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 Deep convection in Hilda's central dense overcast has been weakening today, with the low-level center still on the northern side of the cloud mass. Satellite classifications have decreased since the last advisory, and a partial ASCAT pass around 1700 UTC showed maximum winds of about 45 kt. Assuming some undersampling and that the eastern radius-of-maximum winds could have been missed, the initial wind speed is set to 50 kt. A combination of shear, cool water temperatures, and a more stable environment should keep Hilda on a weakening trend throughout the forecast period. Model guidance continues to be in very good agreement, and the new NHC forecast is basically an update of the previous one. Hilda is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Friday and dissipate as a trough this weekend well east of the Hawaiian Islands. The storm continues moving northwestward, now a little slower at about 6 kt. A mid-level ridge centered over southern California should build westward during the next few days as a mid-latitude trough along 135W moves northward out of the area. This pattern is expected to turn Hilda west-northwestward tomorrow and accelerate the cyclone in that direction as it encounters stronger low- to mid-level flow. Model guidance is a shade faster and to the left of the last cycle, and the new NHC track forecast follows that trend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 17.8N 125.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 18.5N 125.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 19.4N 127.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 20.2N 128.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 21.1N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 21.9N 132.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/1800Z 22.5N 135.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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