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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 18
2021-08-04 04:36:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 040236 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 Hilda is a weakening tropical cyclone. Its low-level center is now exposed in visible satellite imagery, and infrared cloud top temperatures have rapidly warmed as the system is currently not producing any deep convection. Despite this lack of convection, earlier scatterometer data revealed several 45-kt wind vectors in the northern and eastern portions of the circulation. The initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt for this advisory, which is supported by a blend of the final-T numbers and current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and the objective UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate. A mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. continues to steer Hilda northwestward at around 7 kt. As the vortex spins down and becomes vertically shallow, Hilda is expected to turn west-northwestward and accelerate a bit as a low-level ridge builds westward across the eastern Pacific. The official NHC track forecast is largely unchanged from the previous one and lies close to the multi-model consensus. Hilda is moving over cooler waters and into a more stable environment, so continued weakening is expected over the next few days. The official NHC forecast now shows Hilda weakening to a tropical depression by Thursday morning and degenerating to a remnant low soon thereafter. The remnant low is still expected to open up into a trough this weekend well east-northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 18.4N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 19.1N 126.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 19.9N 128.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 20.7N 129.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 21.6N 132.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/1200Z 22.3N 134.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0000Z 22.9N 136.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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