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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 19
2021-08-04 10:47:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 040847 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021 Hilda continues to weaken tonight. For a 12 h period, the low-level circulation was mostly devoid of deep convection, though recently a few convective cells are redeveloping south of the estimated center. Unfortunately, there has not been any recent scatterometer data to help determine the storm's intensity. The current initial intensity of Hilda is set to a possibly generous 40 kt for this advisory, blending the final-T numbers and current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, in addition to the most recent UW-CIMSS SATCON intensity estimate. Further weakening is forecast, as Hilda is now moving over sea-surface temperatures below 25 C, though some residual mid-level moisture may allow for sporadic convective bursts to occur for the next 24-36 hours. By 48 hours, the ECMWF, GFS, and HWRF models all agree Hilda will lose any remaining organized convection and become a remnant low, with this low opening up to a trough this weekend, well east-northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Now that Hilda is becoming an increasingly shallow cyclone, the storm is beginning to bend slightly to the left, now moving to the west-northwest at 300/8 kt. Low- to mid-level ridging to the north and east of Hilda is expected to build in further over the next several days, and should allow the cyclone to turn a bit more westward at a slightly faster motion by the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC track forecast is very close to the previous one, and remains near the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 18.9N 126.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 19.6N 127.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 20.4N 129.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 21.3N 131.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 22.1N 133.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/1800Z 22.6N 136.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven
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