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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 20
2021-08-04 16:34:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 041434 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021 Hilda continues to weaken early this morning due to cool sea-surface temperatures (SST) and modest northerly vertical wind shear. The current intensity is estimated to be 35 kt based on an average of subjective satellite classifications of T2.5/35 kt from both TAFB and SAB, and objective estimates of 31 kt and 41 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON, respectively. Hilda is currently moving over sub-25C SSTs with even cooler water and increasing westerly wind shear still ahead of the cyclone. As a result of these unfavorable environmental parameters, Hilda is forecast to weaken further, becoming a depression later today and a remnant low by late tonight or early Thursday. Dissipation is expected by late Friday or Saturday well to the east of the Hawaiian Islands. The new NHC official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and follows a blend of the HCCA and IVCN consensus intensity models. Hilda has been moving west-northwestward or 295/08 kt. This general motion should continue into Thursday. Low- to mid-level ridging to the north of Hilda is expected to gradually build westward over the next several days, forcing the cyclone and its remnants more westward on Friday and Saturday. The new NHC forecast track is essentially just an update of the previous advisory, and lies down the middle of the tightly packed consensus track models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 19.1N 127.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 19.7N 128.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 20.6N 130.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 21.5N 132.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1200Z 22.2N 135.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/0000Z 22.7N 137.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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