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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 22
2021-08-05 04:35:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 050235 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021 Hilda's satellite appearance has changed little over the past several hours. Small bursts of moderate to deep convection persist in the eastern semicircle of the system, and the low-level center is still partially exposed to the west of the convective cloud mass. Without any recent scatterometer data, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory, in best agreement with a T2.5/35 kt Dvorak classification from TAFB. A subtropical ridge over the eastern North Pacific continues to steer Hilda west-northwestward, or 290/7 kt. This general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so, followed by a slight westward turn on Friday as the shallow cyclone becomes steered by a low-level ridge to its north. While most of the models show limited interaction between Hilda and TD Nine-E to its southwest, it is worth noting that the GFS moves both Nine-E and Hilda much farther northward than the rest of the guidance. The GFS solution is not favored at this time, and the latest NHC track forecast remains very similar to the previous one and lies near the multi-model guidance consensus. Hilda is not expected to remain a tropical storm for much longer. As sea surface temperatures decrease along its track and the cyclone moves into a drier, more stable environment, it will become increasingly difficult for Hilda to sustain organized convection near its center. The latest NHC forecast calls for Hilda to weaken to a tropical depression on Thursday and degenerate to a 25-kt remnant low on Friday morning. Then, the global models agree that the system should open into a trough and dissipate by Saturday morning well east of the Hawaiian Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 19.6N 128.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 20.2N 130.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 21.3N 132.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 22.1N 134.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/0000Z 22.6N 137.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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